The research group uses over 100 years of historical hurricane data, along with sea surface temperatures and other weather patterns to develop their annual forecast. Lian Xie, the research group states 11 to 15 named storms will form in the Atlantic basin this year, with four to six of the storms having the potential to develop into a hurricane, and two becoming major hurricanes. The 2016 season saw 15 named storms, seven of them becoming hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes. In addition, forecasters at North Carolina State University USA are predicting a near “normal” hurricane season in 2017.
Other early systems were Alberto and Beryl in 2012, Ana in 2015, then Alex and Bonnie in 2016.įorecasters predict “normal” hurricane season 2017 However, if this system is named, it would be the sixth preseason formation that has occurred over the past six years. Since geostationary satellite data became available in 1966, the average date of first storm formation is June 22, but there is a lot of variability.
National Hurricane Center forecasters say the system is expected to be short lived, and probably will not gain the intensity needed to earn the name Arlene. Located over the north central Atlantic and located about halfway between Bermuda, the storm has winds of approximately 35 miles per hour (mph), just 4 mph lower than the speed required to be classified as a tropical storm.Īlthough it is not a threat to land, the system was absorbed into a subtropical depression by Wednesday afternoon, moving toward the northeast. On Wednesday, April 19th, the system was classified as Tropical Depression One. 4 with 100 mph sustained winds.The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1st and lasts through November 30th, but the National Hurricane Center has been tracking a circulation of thunderstorms in the mid-Atlantic over the past several days. Only one hurricane on record has struck the Florida peninsula in November, the so-called 1935 Yankee Hurricane, which made landfall near present-day Bal Harbor on Nov. Since 1980, six tropical cyclones – four tropical storms and two tropical depressions – have struck the Florida peninsula in November, all initially from the south or west, and none with maximum sustained winds over 65 mph. Just how much rain we see in South Florida from the storm will depend on how organized the system becomes and where its center tracks, but expect at minimum squally showers lasting into Thursday.Īs we discussed in yesterday’s newsletter, this is an unusual system, not only because of how it’s forming, but also because of its approach from the east or even northeast during November. Because we’ll be squeezed between high pressure to the north and the sprawling low pressure system to the south, deteriorating coastal conditions, including life-threatening rip currents, hazardous marine weather, large breaking waves, and minor to moderate coastal flooding will precede the storm system early this week. Regardless of the tropical technicalities, there’s increasing confidence for an impactful coastal storm affecting much of the Florida peninsula this week.įor us in South Florida, the worst weather looks to be on Wednesday into Thursday. An unusual and impactful late season storm developing north of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico – designated Invest 98L – will gradually organize over the next several days and slide westward toward Florida, bringing dangerous seas, widespread coastal flooding and beach erosion, gusty squalls, and the potential for heavy rain to a wide stretch of Florida’s Atlantic coast starting Tuesday into Wednesday.įorecast models have trended toward a more organized subtropical or tropical storm approaching Florida by mid-week, though the verdict’s still out on how broad or consolidated the circulation will be.
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